HOUSTON, Texas — Shuler Research, a social modeling research group noted for predictions based on public risk tolerance, is studying effectiveness of COVID-19 information and how the public uses it to make strategic decisions.
An on-going survey asks “Current projections of vaccine effectiveness are 40-60%, similar to research demonstrated mask effectiveness of 50-75%, did you know this?” Respondents report 89% to 11% that they did not.
A key question is highly correlated with strategy choices: “Population (herd) immunity is all or nothing – a threshold effect?” Respondents are 60% in agreement and 40% in disagreement. This affects, for example, the public reaction to economist Joe Brusuelas’ recent comment (see image).
A difficulty of epidemic or pandemic modeling is that predictions change behavior, which change predictions. Weather forecasting does not have this problem. But economic forecasting also has it.
ShulerResearch.org founder Robert Shuler, developer of an economic based crash rate theory for NASA and book author, says, “Pessimistic reinforcing forecasts between the economy and a pandemic are not just possible but likely. With more accurate understanding and messaging, people will make better decisions. Our focus is on the understanding that the decisions are based on, not what the decisions are. Reasonable people may choose different paths, and more than one path may lead to a solution, but if expectations are not met businesses crash and we lose both the economy and our health.”
The survey will run through the first week of August at https://shulerresearch.org/.
It includes an animation of good/bad behavior effects on unlock (unexpected), a special graphic with unlock, seasonality and immunity showing effect on total cases, and takes only 5 minutes for participants to evaluate and give feedback. Over 48% of say they learned something from the survey. They will contribute to better COVID information and faster, more effective strategies.
ShulerResearch.org is an independent research think tank focusing on the puzzle of society, civilization, evolution and systems behavior.
*IMAGE link for media: https://www.Send2Press.com/300dpi/20-0803s2p-Shuler-Research-300dpi.jpg
*Image caption: Pie charts, public reaction to economist Joe Brusuelas’ recent comment.
Related link: https://shulerresearch.org/
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