Optimal Blue report: Purchase demand rebounds as mortgage market finds balance

PLANO, Texas -- Optimal Blue today released its February 2026 Market Advantage mortgage data report, showing a meaningful improvement in lock activity as lower mortgage rates helped bring purchase borrowers back into the market. Total rate-lock volume rose 9% month over month (MoM) and was nearly 40% higher year over year (YoY). Purchase lock volume increased more than 14% from January and 5% compared with February 2025, driving refinance share down to 41% of locks from 44% in January. Rate-and-term and cash-out refinance activity edged modestly higher from January but remained sharply stronger YoY.

Mortgage rates declined across all major products in February. The OBMMI 30-year conforming fixed rate, the benchmark for CME Group's Mortgage Rate futures, finished the month at 5.90%, down 17 basis points (bps) from January. Jumbo and VA rates each declined 11 bps during the month, while FHA rates fell 13 bps. The 10-year Treasury yield closed the month at 3.97%, down nearly 30 bps, and the spread between the 10-year Treasury and the OBMMI 30-year rate widened to 193 bps as the mortgage rally lagged the broader bond market.

"February's data shows the market settling into a healthier balance between purchase and refinance activity as rates moved lower," said Mike Vough, senior vice president of corporate strategy at Optimal Blue. "Purchase demand is back after a slow start to the year, but refinance share is still running at 41%, which is higher than anything we saw between early 2022 and late last year."

Secondary market data in February pointed to shifting execution dynamics as pricing spreads widened and delivery strategies evolved. Best-efforts-to-mandatory spreads widened for conventional products while hedged loan sales moved toward the agency cash window. At the same time, agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) securitization declined and mortgage servicing rights (MSR) values increased despite falling benchmark rates.

"In an environment like this, lenders are paying close attention to how they execute and manage risk," said Vough. "We're seeing more active positioning across delivery channels and servicing assets as lenders balance near-term pricing with longer-term portfolio value."

Key findings from the Market Advantage report, derived from direct-source mortgage lock and secondary market data, include:

Volume trends and market composition

* Refinance activity remains strong: Refinances accounted for 41% of total lock volume in February, down from 44% in January, as purchase demand rebounded. Rate-and-term refinance locks increased 3% MoM and 280% YoY, while cash-out refinance volume rose 1% MoM and 34% YoY.

* Purchase demand rebounds: Purchase lock volume rose 14% MoM and 5% YoY, marking a meaningful improvement from January's slower start to the year and helping restore a more balanced mix between purchase and refinance activity.

* Non-conforming share expands: Conforming loans represented 53% of total lock volume in February, down 28 bps MoM but up 62 bps YoY. Non-conforming share increased to 16%, rising 91 bps MoM and 90 bps YoY. FHA loans accounted for 17% of locks, VA loans for 13% and USDA loans for 1%.

* ARM utilization rises: Adjustable-rate mortgages comprised 10% of total lock volume in February, up 111 bps MoM and 337 bps YoY from 6.9% last year.

Rates and pricing

* Rates move lower: The OBMMI 30-year conforming fixed rate declined 17 bps to 5.90%. Jumbo and VA rates each fell 11 bps, while FHA rates declined 13 bps. The 10-year Treasury yield declined nearly 30 bps to 3.97%, while the mortgage-to-Treasury spread widened to 193 bps.

* MSR values increase: Mortgage servicing rights for conforming 30-year loans rose 2 bps to 1.18%, representing a 4.74 multiple, even as benchmark mortgage rates declined during the month.

* Spreads adjust across products: Best-efforts-to-mandatory spreads widened for conventional products, with the conforming 30-year spread increasing 3 bps and the conventional 15-year spread rising 1 bp. The government 30-year spread decreased 5 bps.

* Loan pricing mix shifts slightly: The share of loans sold at the highest price tier declined 100 bps to 78%, while second-tier executions increased 100 bps to 13%.

Channel and execution

* Securitization share pulls back: Agency MBS securitizations accounted for 42% of hedged executions in February, down from 47% in January.

* Cash window share jumps: Hedged loan sales to the agency cash window rose 500 bps MoM to 29%, the largest share of cash window deliveries since February 2025.

Product mix and borrower profiles

* Credit profiles diverge: Purchase FICO scores averaged 734 in February, down 1 point MoM and 3 points YoY. Refinance credit profiles strengthened, with cash-out scores averaging 705 (up 1 point MoM and 10 points YoY) and rate-and-term scores averaging 749 (up 2 points MoM and 18 points YoY).

* Loan amounts climb: The national average loan amount increased from $400,667 in January to $404,586 in February, marking the first time the average has remained above $400,000 for consecutive months. The national average loan-to-value ratio was 80.32%. Loan amounts ranged from $875,787 in the San Francisco Bay area to $319,743 in San Antonio, with regional LTVs spanning from 68.45% in the Bay area to 89.38% in San Antonio.

To view the full February 2026 Market Advantage report, complete the free subscription form: https://engage.optimalblue.com/market-advantage.

Subscribers receive a report PDF each month with the latest data. Members of the press are eligible for special, advance access each month and should contact Leslie Colley to be added to the media list.

About the Market Advantage Report

Optimal Blue issues the Market Advantage mortgage report each month to provide insight into U.S. mortgage trends and drivers of lending profitability. Data is sourced from the Optimal Blue PPE, which is used to price and lock more than one-third of all mortgages nationwide, and Optimal Blue's hedging and loan trading system, which supports approximately 40% of loans hedged and sold into the secondary market. As the leader in mortgage capital markets technology, Optimal Blue has a direct view of both origination and secondary market activity and the interconnectedness of the two. Unlike self-reported survey data, Optimal Blue's direct-source data accurately reflect the in-process loans in lenders' pipelines and secondary market executions. Visit Optimal Blue's website to subscribe to receive the free report each month.

Nothing herein shall be construed as, nor is Optimal Blue providing, any legal, trading, hedging or financial advice.

About Optimal Blue

Optimal Blue powers profitability across the mortgage capital markets ecosystem. As the industry's only end-to-end capital markets platform, our technology, data and integrations bridge the primary and secondary markets to help lenders of all sizes maximize performance - from pricing accuracy to margin protection and every step in between. Backed by over 20 years of proven expertise, our modern, cloud-native technology delivers the real-time automation, actionable data and seamless connectivity lenders need to navigate market volatility and scale for growth. To learn more about how Optimal Blue delivers measurable ROI, visit https://OptimalBlue.com.

Related link: https://www2.optimalblue.com/

This news story was published by the Neotrope® News Network - all rights reserved. ID:NEO2022B